Can Jimmy make it?
In a post last year I argued that Jimmy should run for President but will not because he does not have a chance of getting elected in the second round. I was wrong about him not running, but I now wonder whether I was also wrong about him not being able to win.Jimmy has somehow managed to create a number of records in his favour. To start off, at the tender age of 42 he was elected to become the youngest secretary general of AKEL, before even being elected as MP! He then managed to lose 2 consecutive presidential elections (1993 and 1998) to arch AKEL enemy Clerides but his position was never challenged within AKEL. He then managed to elect TeePee in 2003 ("The man hath changeth") and became the first-ever President of Parliament hailing from AKEL. And now, for the first time during the 47 year history of the Republic, he is the first candidate coming straight from AKEL.
What are his chances of getting elected as first ever President of the Republic? I think that he will actually have a good chance, even in the second round in this coming election.
Why do I say that? There is a dire need for true change in Stravaraland. There is an insatiable (and growing) thirst for honest handling of domestic problems and policies. And rightly or wrongly, Jimmy is actually as credible a candidate for an honest change as Kasoulides. In fact, he has a stronger claim than Kasoulides for being the angel of change given his absence from direct involvement in previous administrations. Moreover, given that the AKEL-hailing ministers (excluding Thrassou) have had a reputation for being the best ministers around, he benefits from a feeling that there is competence coming along with honesty.
Thinking more about this, I would not bet against Jimmy actually, not yet anyway...
posted by apodimos Kypreos at 17:55
7 Comments:
Your last paragraph is all good. I couldn't agree more. If only elections were decided on any of those factors :)
I think that either of the two opponents is more likely to support (either formally or informally after announcing a non-decision) Jimmy's opponent in the second round. There's also the issue of voters (in the unlikely case that either Tassos or Kassos officially endorse Jimmy) following their party's decision. It won't be easy for a traditional DHKO or DHSY follower to put a cross next to Jimmy's name, instead of over it.
I'm too pessimistic, eh...
Do you think the dirty imperialists will allow Cyprus to become a communist-led state ??
I think not.
1993 and 1998 were presidential elections not parliamentary ones.
I am not so sure Jimmy is the right man. And how can we say he is the angel of change if he was instrumental in getting TeePee into power? How does that work out? AKEL supplied most of the ministers in the cabinet and was definitely involved in the decision making process.
The question is if AKEL gets to power by itself will it actually sort things out or will it be same tune different violin player?
Plus his anti-imperialist rheotirc grates me a lot and I am not sure if it will win us any friends abroad.
Since you're both a sceptic and observant, 3 out of 11 ministers doesn't really qualify as "most". Even if you count Lillikas as an AKEL minister, 4 out of 11 still doesn't qualify as "most". Unless ChrisPash is an AKEL member incognito!
@anonymous:
>Do you think the dirty >imperialists will allow Cyprus to >become a communist-led state ??
>I think not.
Are you talking about NKS, J&P and the like? I actually think these are the imperialists that matter and they do quite well by supporting equally all candidates...
Sceptic Anonymous said...
> 1993 and 1998 were >presidential elections not >parliamentary ones.
You are right, that is what I had in mind actually.
> I am not so sure Jimmy is the >right man. And how can we say he >is the angel of change if he was >instrumental in getting TeePee >into power? How does that work >out? AKEL supplied most of the >ministers in the cabinet and was >definitely involved in the >decision making process.
I believe that Jimmy honestly believed TeePee and said "Άλλαξεν ο άδρωπος σιόρ". That is why he could convince the comrades to vote for someone with the past of TeePee (relative to AKEL). Moreover, Jimmy could not afford to lose a third consecutive presidential election. Recall Jimmy came to power right after Vassiliou in 1988 but lost 1993 and 1998. Do you think Jimmy would be around to fight right now if he had lost 2003 too? It is OK for Omonoia to forget the 1980s but for Jimmy to lose 3 elections in a row might have been too tough to survive even within AKEL.
Unfortunately Jimmy probably realized circa 20th of April 2004 what type of person TeePee was, but by that time it was too late. What was he supposed to do? He went along to live to fight for another day. Which shows qualities of a good politician actually.
> The question is if AKEL gets >to power by itself will it >actually sort things out or will >it be same tune different violin >player?
Unknown. But the same question was asked of TeePee relative to Glafkos in 2003. The counterargument was (and still is): How much worse can it get?
> Plus his anti-imperialist >rheotirc grates me a lot and I am >not sure if it will win us any >friends abroad.
That is just for the EDON parties. And now this can easily be masked as anti-Americanism and the rest of the world does it anyway. If yo u think about it a bit, the biggest fans of reapproachment with the T/C have been AKEL and the fulbright program.... So actually, in terms of conflict resolution, AKEL will be much better in that respect than any other political party (greater than 5% of the vote) in Stravaraland
1) Katsourides factor ?
2) "...He then managed to lose 2 consecutive parliamentary elections (1993 and 1998) to arch AKEL enemy Clerides but his position was never challenged within AKEL..."
That is his main concern. He only runs because full support of tASSOS from the get-go could encourage a challenge from both "nenekoi" and "oxiades" within his party -regardless of the outcome. The first-round partisan patriotism is the much needed spinach for this Popeye. (Or is it Bluto?)
@moufflon:
Katsourides is Jimmy's best buddy and at the same time sees at least 2 scenarios where he takes over the party.
If e gets through the first round and runs against DaMan he is assured victory. Unless of course he decides to stand down. Caught between a rock, a hard place and Kats' penchent for young females.
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