Why Christofias should Run, and Why he will not

Very soon we will get the official announcement that TeePee will be running in 2008. The only real unknown lies with the method that will be chosen to bring this to the people.

An interesting side-discussion is whether Jimmy will, or should, run. Well, unfortunately we are in a situation that Jimmy should run, but for the same reason, he will decide not to.

Let me be a bit specific.

He should run so that TeePee does not win re-election on the implicit platform of “clean solutions”, recently cited by different Israelis as a model-solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The details of how high to build the fence will be worked out in private technical committee negotiations once the ground has been well prepared and appropriate experts have been summoned to offer their opinions.

If Jimmy runs, it is highly likely that TeePee does not make it to the second round and between Jimmy and a DHSY candidate, it is likely that the DHSY candidate will get elected with DIKO votes (and this is not the fault of DHSY but the pikka that will arise from the mere fact that Christofias decided to run).

If TeePee does make it to the second round, either against Jimmy or against the DHSY candidate, then TeePee will be again re-elected, either with lower negotiated power for AKEL (against the DHSY candidate) or with the DHSY votes (against Jimmy).

In all three scenarios I spelled out, AKEL loses power and does not necessarily solve the CypProb.

The first scenario is the most likely scenario in my mind (and in most people’s minds, I think). but all three possible scenarios have the same outcome. Jimmy running means TeePee loses the election (that is why Jimmy should run so that some hope about political settlement, of one sort or the other, can be generated). But for that same reason, Jimmy will choose not to run because the uncertainties of a political settlement are much greater than the pure certainty of clinging to power.