In a previous post I argued (a bit vaguely, but will make it more detailed in the future) that a loose federation is a viable solution that can win a separate majority on both sides of the island. It is actually, in my view, the only possible road to avoid complete and irreversible partition, uncontrolled population inflows, an irreversible division of the two communities along an Iron-Curtain border, and a continuous military buildup with all the risks (and waste) this entails. One may agree or disagree with the above assessment, my view is that under current circumstances and recent events, a loose federation is the only way out of the psychological fear, the diplomatic distrust and the enmity that has been allowed to develop over the years and in the last three years in particular.
The question is: if the majority of G/C think like that, should they vote for TeePee? He seems to be potentially closer to the above “ideal” of a loose federation. His supporters, a cacophony of cheerleaders, ranging from commando fighter, “two-state” Matsakis, one-person-one-vote neo-democrat Sillouris, no-comment-no-problem DIKO president Karoyian, solution-lies-in-legal-EU-treaties Angelides, crypto-YES-anti-Anastasiades EDEK pseudo-president Omirou, EDEK president-emeritus-and-at-large Lyssarides, and more generally many voters who live in fear of the Turkish army and just want to keep the situation as it is, erroneously thinking that this is the most stable situation, on the basis of the experience in the last 30 years. With such supporters, one might argue that a for very loose federation, one might be better off voting for the incumbent.
I want to argue that this is the wrong inference. I hope you are convinced that what unites the above group is either a mistaken world-view of the power of a legalistic approach to solve political problems (Angelides and maybe Lyssarides) or a complete denial that T/C actually exist and have political rights guaranteed in the Constitution since 1960 (Syllouris etc) or are simply driven by personal enmities (Omirou), or simply think that partition is not such a bad idea (Matsakis).
The current President simply accepts the support of these groups and tries to act as a “unifier” of diverse voices, competently arguing that “the official position remains the goal of a federal solution and I have never said anything to contradict that myself”. So the final call is up to the voter to decide whether the president means what he says given the diverse support he inspires or not. In particular, can a loose federation be acceptable to this diverse group, and the President himself?
I don’t think that a loose federation will ever by accepted by this group. A loose federation recognizes the right of one area to be governed by the T/C without interference from the G/C. One-man-one-vote Sillouris will not agree to that, and neither will human-rights EU legal activist Angelides. Two-state Matsakis would rather have his two states than a loose federation that maintains some possibility of tighter union in the future. Omirou will go against whatever Anastasiades supports, and Karoyian will not want to rock the boat and will therefore side with TeePee. Now will TeePee ever agree to the creation of a loose federation? I don’t know. What I do know, is that on one Wednesday in April 2004 he proclaimed:I have received an internationally recognized state. I will not hand down a “Community” without an international voice
That proclamation is suggestive that a loose federation can never be achieved under the current incumbent. If the current incumbent thinks like that, I do not see how a federal state can be created under his watch. That is why, beginning to think towards a loose federation, still implies not voting for the incumbent.